Author: Specialist

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

As happens this time of year, many base oil buyers have largely ceased activity for the remainder of the year, yet a few pockets of action continue.

One refiner along the Mediterraneaniterranean is having production problems, so there are inquiries for material to cover any shortfall for that company’s in-house and contractual commitments.

Prices for API Group I grades have stabilized overall, perhaps because they have little room to decline further. In addition, a more balanced supply-demand picture is emerging as a number of suppliers are showing substantial buying interest for January, lending hope that markets may undergo an upturn during the first quarter. The squeeze on margins has some Group I refiners seriously considering whether to continue producing these grades. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 65.10 Our preference: long positions above 65.10 with targets at 65.65 & 65.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 65.10 look for further downside with 64.85 & 64.50 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK OCT Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: NA prev: 3.8%
10:00 EC OCT Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 18654
13:30 US NOV Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1406 prev: 1461
13:30 US NOV Housing Starts (k) exp: 1338 prev: 1314
14:15 US NOV Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 77.3% prev: 76.74%
14:15 US NOV Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.8% prev: -0.8%

US indices closed up on Monday, lifted by the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.5%), Energy (+1.42%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.34%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 3.5 for December, below the 4.0 consensus, up from 2.9 in November. The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index slightly declined to 52.5 for the December preliminary reading, below the expected 52.6 and down from 52.6 in the November final reading.

On Tuesday, economists expect Housing Starts to increase to 1,344K for November, up from 1,314K the month before. Building Permits are anticipated to fall to 1,418K for November, down from 1,461K in October. Industrial Production monthly change for November is expected to rise 0.8% for November, compared to a fall of 0.8% the prior month. Finally, Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 77.4% for November, up from 76.7% in October.



European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 64.15 Our preference: long positions above 64.15 with targets at 64.85 & 65.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 64.15 look for further downside with 63.80 & 63.50 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE NOV Wholesale Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.1%
07:45 FR 3Q F Wages (QoQ) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
13:30 US NOV Retail Sales exp: 0.4% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US NOV Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.3% prev: 0.2%
15:00 US OCT Business Inventories exp: 0.2% prev: 0%

US indices closed up on Thursday lifted by the Banks (+2.82%), Automobiles & Components (+2.4%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.38%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Producer Price Index Final Demand month over month change was flat for November, missing the expected 0.2% rise, down from an increase of 0.4% the month before. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 252K for the week ending December 7th, above the 214K consensus, up from 203K the week before, marking the highest reading since late-2017. Continuing Claims fell to 1667K for the week ending November 30th, better than the 1678K estimate, down from a revised 1698K the prior week. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index released at 62.1 for the week ending December 8th, up from 61.7 last week.

On Friday, economists expect Retail Sales Advance monthly change to rise 0.5% for November, up from a rise of 0.3% the month before. Finally the Import Price Index monthly change is anticipated to increase 0.2%. up from a fall of 0.5% in October.


European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.50 Our preference: long positions above 63.50 with targets at 64.25 & 64.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.50 look for further downside with 63.25 & 63.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE NOV F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.8% prev: -0.8%
07:00 GE NOV F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.8% prev: -0.8%
07:45 FR NOV F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
07:45 FR NOV F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
10:00 EC OCT Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: 0.1%
12:45 EC ECB: Rates decision exp: 0% prev: 0%
13:30 US NOV PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US NOV Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US W48 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 219 prev: 203 read more

US indices closed up on Wednesday, lifted by the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.92%), Capital Goods (+0.81%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.78%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Applications rose 3.8% for the week ending December 6th, up from a decline of -9.2% the week before. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% for the November month over month change, above the 0.2% consensus, down from a rise of 0.4% a month earlier. The Monthly Budget Deficit rose to 208.8 billion dollars, just above the consensus for November, compared to 204.9 billion dollars in October. The Fed met for the last time this year where chairman Powell stated that monetary policy is well positioned for this expanding economy, the outlook is unchanged, the jobs market is expected to remain strong and inflation remains moderate. The Fed kept interest rates the same.

On Thursday, economists expect the Producer Price Index Final Demand month over month change to rise 0.2% for November, down from 0.4% the month before, Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to increase to 214K for the week ending December 7th, up from 203K the week before. Continuing Claims are expected to fall to 1678K for the week ending November 30th, down from 1693K the prior week. Finally, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index data for the week ending December 8th is expected.


European markets are expected to open on a flat note. read more