Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 59.70 Our preference: short positions below 59.70 with targets at 59.10 & 58.85 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.70 look for further upside with 60.10 & 60.45 as targets. Comment: a break below 59.10 would trigger a drop towards 58.85. |
Today’s Economic Events
13:15 US SEP ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 133 prev: 195
15:30 US W38 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 2412
US indices were under pressure on Tuesday after disappointing manufacturing data fuelled worries over the U.S. economy. ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.8 missing the 50 estimate for September compared to 49.1 in August, marking a 10 year low. Every S&P 500 sector closed in the red with the worst performing stocks in the Automobiles & Components (-3%), Transportation (-2.67%) and Capital Goods (-2.49%) sectors. In other economic news, Markit US Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 51.1 beating the 51 estimate for the September final reading compared to 51 in the preliminary reading. US Construction Spending increased 0.1% missing the 0.5% estimate for August compared to a revised 0.0% change the prior month. Finally US Auto Sales rose to 17.19M beating the 17M estimate for September compared to 16.97M in August. On Wednesday, economists expect US MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending September 27 and ADP Employment Change for September.
European markets are expected to start-open on a positive-negative-flat note.
EMEA Base Oil Price Report
BY RAY MASSON
Base oil prices are coming under pressure from a variety of factors that differ depending on category. API Group I prices are being squeezed by demand reductions that may be part of a seasonal cycle or signs of economic downturns in major markets such as Germany, Italy and Spain.
Group II prices are relatively stable, with one major producer trying to impose increases for October, although this move is being met with resistance from buyers saying they have ample choice in the Group II market and will change suppliers if needs be.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 60.20 Our preference: short positions below 60.20 with targets at 59.20 & 58.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 60.20 look for further upside with 60.50 & 60.80 as targets. Comment: the RSI calls for a new downleg. |
Today’s Economic Events
US SEP Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 17 prev: 17
08:50 FR SEP F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50.3 prev: 50.3
09:00 EU SEP F Markit Manufacturing exp: 45.8 prev: 45.6
14:45 US SEP F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: NA prev: 51
15:00 US AUG Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.1%
15:00 US SEP ISM – Manufacturing exp: 50.2 prev: 49.1
15:00 US SEP ISM – Price Paid exp: 50.9 prev: 46
U.S. indices closed slightly higher on Monday to end a volatile third quarter lifted by shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.77%), Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.32%), Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.3%) sectors while shares in the Energy (-0.75%) sector were under pressure.
On the economic data front, the Market News International Chicago PMI declined to 47.1 for September (vs. 50.0 estimated) from 50.4 in August. On Tuesday, economists expect the ISM Manufacturing PMI to drop to 50.1 in September and Construction Spending to grow 0.4% MoM in August.
The S&P 500 (2976.74) trades below its 20d moving average (2,982.16 – positive slope) but above its 50d moving average (2,948.83 – negative slope).
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.
Today’s Economic Events
GE AUG Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -1.6%
08:55 GE SEP Unemployment Change (k) exp: 5.2 prev: 4
08:55 GE SEP Unemployment Rate exp: 5% prev: 5%
09:30 UK 2Q Current Account (B GBP) exp: -18.6 prev: -30
09:30 UK 2Q F GDP (QoQ) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.2%
09:30 UK AUG M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.7%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.5% prev: 7.5%
13:00 GE SEP P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.2%
13:00 GE SEP P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.1%
14:45 US SEP Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 50.1 prev: 50.4
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 62.40 Our preference: short positions below 62.40 with targets at 61.15 & 60.75 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 62.40 look for further upside with 62.90 & 63.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further downside. |
U.S. indices closed lower on Friday pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.14%), Software & Services (-1.42%) and Commercial & Professional Services (-1.3%) sectors after reports that the White House is considering limits on U.S. investment into China.
On the economic data front, U.S. personal income rose 0.4% MoM in August (as expected) and personal spending grew 0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected). Core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% MoM in August (vs. +0.2% expected). Durable goods orders increased 0.2% MoM in August (vs. -1.1% expected).Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was confirmed at 93.2 (vs. 92.1 expected). On Monday, economists expect the Market News International Chicago PMI to fell to 50.0 in September from 50.4 in August.
The S&P 500 (2961.79) trades below its 20d moving average (2,979.64 – positive slope) but above its 50d moving average (2,948.83 – negative slope).
European markets are expected to start on a negative note.