Author: Specialist

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK AUG Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: 0.2%
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US SEP Philadelphia Fed. exp: 10 prev: 16.8
13:30 US W36 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 215 prev: 204
15:00 US AUG Existing Home Sales (M) exp: 5.4 prev: 5.4
15:00 US AUG Leading Indicators exp: -0.1% prev: 0.5%

U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve gave mixed signals regarding the future of interest rate cuts after lowering interest rates by 0.25%. Shares in the Banks (+0.66%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.51%) and Utilities (+0.47%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Transportation (-0.98%), Telecommunication Services (-0.49%) and Automobiles & Components (-0.44%) sectors were under pressure. The S&P 500 (3,006.73) trades above its 20d moving average (2,948.29 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,951.29 – flat slope).

On the economic data front, housing starts rose to 1.364M in August (vs. 1.250M expected), the highest level since 2007, from 1.215M in July. On Thursday we expect jobless claims for the week ending September 14 to increase 9K from the prior week to 213K. The Leading Index reading for August is anticipated to fell 0.1% MoM. Finally, existing home sales are expected to drop to 5.38M in August from 5.42M in July.

Regarding Crude Oil, prices edged lower on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia said it would quickly restore full production following last week’s attacks on its facilities and the EIA Petroleum Report showed Crude Oil inventories increased 1.1M Barrels.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.15 Our preference: short positions below 66.15 with targets at 62.20 & 61.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 66.15 look for further upside with 67.60 & 68.90 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK AUG CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0%
09:30 UK AUG PPI – Input (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: 0.9%
09:30 UK AUG PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US AUG Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1303 prev: 1317
13:30 US AUG Housing Starts (k) exp: 1251 prev: 1191
15:30 US W36 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -6912
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2% prev: 2.25%

U.S. indices ended in the green on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Market expectations for a 25 basis-point rate cut were at 47.3% and no change at 52.7% according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The SPX was lifted by shares in the Real Estate (+1.4%), Consumer Services (+1.06%) and Household & Personal Products (+1.02%) sectors while the Energy sector (-1.52%) was under pressure. The S&P 500 (3,005.70) trades above its 20d moving average (2,942.98 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,950.75 – flat slope). WTI Crude for October delivery fell over 5% to a low of $58.50 on Tuesday before rebounding slightly after a Saudi Arabian source told Reuters production could be fully back on line within weeks.

On the economic data front, industrial production rose 0.6% MoM in August (vs. +0.2% estimated). On Wednesday we expect August housing starts increase to 1.25M from to 1.19M in July.

European markets are expected to open on a flat note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

Base oil prices across Europe, the Middle East and Africa were flat again the past week.

Availability of API Group I volumes for export from Europe appears to have decreased, but demand is also lower, with few arbitrage opportunities open at the moment. Those openings are confined to West Africa trades, though European cargoes face competition there from United States Gulf sources. Markets within Europe are holding up, but observers predict that demand will start to fall in late September or early October. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.80 Our preference: long positions above 66.80 with targets at 69.60 & 71.85 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.80 look for further downside with 64.85 & 63.75 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 GE SEP Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: -15.1 prev: -13.5
10:00 GE SEP Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -36.7 prev: -44.1
14:15 US AUG Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 77.6% prev: 77.49%
14:15 US AUG Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.2%
15:00 US SEP NAHB Housing Market exp: 66 prev: 66

The Dow posted its first decline in 9 days amid fears that a rally in oil prices after an attack on oil production in Saudi Arabia could slow global economic growth. The attack shut down 5 per cent of global crude output. U.S. officials blamed Iran and President Donald Trump said Washington was “locked and loaded” to retaliate. Brent Crude and WTI Crude futures hit record volumes on the ICE and CME exchanges Monday as prices jumped over 12%. The previous volume record was set back on Nov 30, 2016 after OPEC agreed to an oil supply cut for the first time in 8 years.

Looking at the S&P 500 intraday performance. Shares in the Energy (+3.29%), Real Estate (+1.02%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.2%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Automobiles & Components (-2.47%), Household & Personal Products (-1.87%) and Materials (-1.63%) sectors were under pressure. The S&P 500 (2,997.96) trades above its 20d moving average (2,938.88 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,950.15 – flat slope).

On the economic data front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 2.0 in September (vs. 4.0 estimated) from 4.8 in August. On Tuesday, we can expect industrial production to increase 0.2% MoM for August.

European markets are expected to open on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 68.50 Our preference: short positions below 68.50 with targets at 65.00 & 63.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 68.50 look for further upside with 69.85 & 71.95 as targets. Comment: the RSI has just broken down its overbought area (70%).