Author: Specialist

U.S. indices fell sharply on Wednesday following the Fed first rate cut since 2008. All sectors ended in the red with Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-3.2%), Household & Personal Products (-2.24%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-2.06%) sectors declining the most. The Fed decided to cut rates by 0.25% citing that although there was broad based growth across sectors and good employment numbers, uncertainty about the outlook and sub 2% inflation growth warranted the decision. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate cut is not necessarily the start of an easing cycle. On the economic data front, ADP Employment Change was 156K in July (estimated +150K, +112K in June). The Chicago PMI dropped to 44.4 in July (estimated 51.0) from 49.7 in June. The S&P 500 (2,980.38) breaks below its 20d moving average (2,980.38 – positive slope) but stays above its 50d moving average (2,924.26 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 64.50 Our preference: long positions above 64.50 with targets at 65.75 & 66.15 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 64.50 look for further downside with 64.20 & 63.55 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE JUN Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.7% prev: -1.7%
07:45 FR JUL P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.2%
07:45 FR JUL P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: 0.3%
08:55 GE JUL Unemployment Change (k) exp: 2.6 prev: -1
08:55 GE JUL Unemployment Rate exp: 5% prev: 5%
10:00 EC 2Q A Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.18% prev: 0.4%
10:00 EC JUN Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.5% prev: 7.5%
13:15 US JUL ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 143 prev: 102
14:45 US JUL Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 51.9 prev: 49.7
15:30 US W29 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -10835
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.25% prev: 2.5% read more

U.S. indices ended negative on Tuesday pressured by share from the Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (-0.97%), Consumer Services (-0.92%), Telecommunication Services (-0.81%) sectors while Household & Personal Products (+2.02%), Energy (+1.09%), Real Estate (+0.89%) sectors were on the upside, limiting the corrective move. On the economic data front, Personal Income increased by 0.4% MoM in June (estimated +0.4%) and Personal Spending rose 0.3% (estimated +0.3%). The Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped to its highest level of the year at 135.7 in July (estimated 125.0) from 124.3 in June. The S&P 500 (3,013.18) stays above its 20d moving average (2,998.49 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,921.46 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Base oil markets have entered a period of stability across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with good availability for all types and grades but no glaring oversupply situations.

Demand waned the past week due mainly to the onset of the holiday period, and after a mini buying spike that saw European buyers take advantage of low prices to build inventory for late August.

The quiet period typically sees numerous blending plants temporarily close or reduce hours, sometimes to allow for equipment maintenance. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.55 Our preference: long positions above 63.55 with targets at 64.15 & 64.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.55 look for further downside with 63.15 & 62.90 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Today’s Economic Events

06:30 FR 2Q P GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
07:45 FR JUN Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -83.9
07:45 FR JUN Households Consumption (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.4%
10:00 EC JUL Business Climate Indicator exp: 0.07 prev: 0.17
10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 102.7 prev: 103.3
10:00 EC JUL Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: -6.6 prev: -5.6
10:00 EC JUL F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -6.6 prev: -6.6
13:00 GE JUL P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
13:00 GE JUL P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US JUN Personal Income exp: 0.3% prev: 0.5%
13:30 US JUN Personal Spending exp: 0.3% prev: 0.4%
15:00 US JUL Consumer Confidence exp: 124.9 prev: 121.5 read more

U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday with the Dow Jones rebounding while S&P 500 and Nasdaq were under pressure. Stocks in Retailing (-0.85%), Banks (-0.84%) and Diversified Financials (-0.79%) sectors traded lower while the one from Household & Personal Products (+1.11%), Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.71%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.69%) sectors gained some ground. On the economic data front, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index climbed to -6.3 in July (vs -6.0 expected) from -12.1 in June. The S&P 500 (3,020.97) stays above its 20d moving average (2,996.05 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,918.39 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.55 Our preference: short positions below 63.55 with targets at 63.00 & 62.75 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.55 look for further upside with 63.90 & 64.20 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK JUN M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.1%