Author: Specialist

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE MAY F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
07:00 GE MAY F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
10:00 EC APR Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: -0.3%
13:30 US W22 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 217 prev: 218

US indices closed mixed on Wednesday. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.25%), Energy (-1.44%) and Banks (-1.41%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Utilities (+1.33%), Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+0.9%) and Commercial & Professional Services (+0.74%) sectors gained traction. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications grew by 26.8% in week ending June 7 compared with 1.5% in the previous week. Next, the CPI grew by 0.1 % for the month of May (estimated 0.1%) compared with 0.3% for the previous month. On a YoY basis the CPI grew by 1.8% for May (estimated 1.9%) vs. 2% for May 2018. Lastly, the monthly budget statement presented a deficit of $207.8B in May (estimated $202.5B) vs. a deficit of $146.8B for the previous month. The S&P 500 (2,879.84) stays above its 20d moving average (2,833.26 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,873.16 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 62.05 Our preference: short positions below 62.05 with targets at 60.90 & 60.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 62.05 look for further upside with 62.80 & 63.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Today’s Economic Events

13:30 US MAY Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US MAY CPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
15:30 US W22 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 6771
19:00 US MAY Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: NA prev: 160

US indices closed lower on Tuesday, pressured by shares in the Capital Goods (-1.03%), Commercial & Professional Services (-0.85%) and Utilities (-0.69%) sectors. On the economic data front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index beat estimates reaching 105 in May (estimated 102) compared with 103.5 in the previous month. PPI Final Demand decelerated slightly by 0.1% in May and in-line with estimates vs. 0.2% in April. Next, PPI Final Demand grew 1.8% YoY for May (estimated 2%) compared to 2.2% in May of 2018. The S&P 500 (2,885.72) stays above its 20d moving average (2,830.95 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,872.93 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

The conundrum facing base oil refiners may have been partly solved by the sudden slide in crude and feedstock prices, which alleviated the need to raise base oil prices in order to attain acceptable margins.

With ample supply of all types of base oils and demand being relatively low, pressure for markups was becoming critical, particularly for the API Group I segment, where margins had been squeezed to move surplus quantities.

Group I prices have now steadied after producers cut back on output and large quantities reportedly were earmarked for export destinations this week. Both buyers and sellers appear to be in a happier place. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.15 Our preference: short positions below 63.15 with targets at 61.80 & 61.35 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.15 look for further upside with 63.70 & 64.10 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK APR Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 3.8% prev: 3.8%
13:30 US MAY PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US MAY Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%

US indices closed higher on Monday, led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.34%), Retailing (+1.66%) and Automobiles & Components (+1.44%) sectors. On the economic data front, there was no news to report. The S&P 500 (2,886.73) stays above its 20d moving average (2,827.30 – flat slope) and its 50d moving average (2,871.90 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs on Monday. On the economic data front, there was no news to report.

The Euro was bullish against all of its major pairs with the exception of the USD. In Europe, UK GDP fell by 0.4% in April (-0.1% expected), its biggest monthly slide since March 2016, after a 0.1% decrease in March. Separately, the UK industrial production dropped by 2.7% in April (-1% anticipated) after a 0.7% increase a month earlier. 

The Australian dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.05 Our preference: long positions above 63.05 with targets at 64.10 & 64.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.05 look for further downside with 62.60 & 62.10 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.