Author: Specialist

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 72.35 Our preference: short positions below 72.35 with targets at 71.70 & 71.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 72.35 look for further upside with 72.75 & 73.30 as targets. Comment: as long as 72.35 is resistance, expect a return to 71.70.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE MAR Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: 0.5%
08:50 FR APR F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 49.7 prev: 49.6
09:00 EU APR F Markit Manufacturing exp: 47.8 prev: 47.8
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity exp: 2% prev: 1.9%
13:30 US 1Q P Unit Labor Costs exp: 1.3% prev: 2%
13:30 US W16 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 216 prev: 230
15:00 US MAR F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: 0.4%
15:00 US MAR F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: 2.7%
15:00 US MAR Factory Orders exp: 1.4% prev: -0.5% read more

U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its Federal Funds rate unchanged at 2.25%-2.50%, as expected, and reaffirmed its commitment to be “patient” on future rate moves. Shares in the Energy (-2.17%), Materials (-1.84%) and Household & Personal Products (-1.83%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, the ADP reported that the U.S. economy added 275K private jobs in April (estimated +180K, +151K in March). In other news, the final readings of April Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI posted 52.6 (previously estimated 52.4). The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 52.8 in April (expected 55.0) from 55.3 in March. Also, construction spending declined 0.9% MoM in March (estimated to remain flat). Finally, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its Federal Funds rate unchanged at 2.25%-2.5%, as expected, as it reaffirmed its commitment to be “patient” on future rate moves. The Federal Open Market Committee mentioned that overall and core inflation on a 12-month basis have gone down and stated that the economic activity rose at a solid rate. The S&P 500 (2,923.73) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,908.46 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,846.13 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 72.35 Our preference: short positions below 72.35 with targets at 71.20 & 70.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 72.35 look for further upside with 72.75 & 73.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

Today’s Economic Events

US APR Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 17 prev: 17.5
09:30 UK MAR M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
13:15 US APR ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 180 prev: 129
14:45 US APR F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 52.7 prev: 52.4
15:00 US APR ISM – Manufacturing exp: 55 prev: 55.3
15:00 US APR ISM – Price Paid exp: 55.6 prev: 54.3
15:00 US MAR Construction Spending (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 1%
15:30 US W16 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 5479
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.5% prev: 2.5% read more

U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Media (-3.21%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.24%) and Automobiles & Components (-0.79%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Utilities (+1.67%), Household & Personal Products (+1.59%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (+1.21%) sectors ended on a positive note. On the economic data front, employment cost index rose 0.7% QoQ in 1Q (as expected). The MNI Chicago PMI dropped to 52.6 in April (estimated 58.5) from 58.7 in March. Also, pending home sales increased by 3.8% MoM in March (forecasted +1.5%). Finally, the Conference Board consumer confidence index climbed to 129.2 in April (expected 126.8) from 124.2 in March. The S&P 500 (2,945.83) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,905.63 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,843.25 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.30 Our preference: long positions above 71.30 with targets at 72.50 & 73.35 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 71.30 look for further downside with 70.60 & 70.30 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

06:30 FR 1Q P GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
07:00 GE MAR Import Prices (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
07:45 FR APR P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.8%
07:45 FR APR P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.9%
07:45 FR MAR Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -36.9
07:45 FR MAR Households Consumption (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -0.4%
07:45 FR MAR Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.4%
08:55 GE APR Unemployment Change (k) exp: -7.1 prev: -7
08:55 GE APR Unemployment Rate exp: 4.9% prev: 4.9%
10:00 EC 1Q A Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.31% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC MAR Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.8% prev: 7.8%
13:00 GE APR P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.4%
13:00 GE APR P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
14:45 US APR Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 58.7 prev: 58.7
15:00 US APR Consumer Confidence exp: 126.4 prev: 124.1 read more

U.S. indices closed higher on Monday as the S&P500 reached another record high. Shares in the Banks (+1.32%), Media (+0.92%) and Diversified Financials (+0.64%) sectors gained strength. On the economic data front, personal income increased 0.1% MoM in March (estimated +0.4%) and personal spending rose 0.9% (forecasted +0.7%). In other news, the Dallas Federal manufacturing activity index fell to 2 in April (expected 10) from 6.9 in March. The S&P 500 (2,943.03) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,901.70 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,839.84 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to star on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 72.50 Our preference: short positions below 72.50 with targets at 71.30 & 70.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 72.50 look for further upside with 73.35 & 74.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.