Author: Specialist

Today’s Economic Events

15:00 EC APR A Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -7 prev: -7.2
15:00 US MAR New Home Sales (k) exp: 648 prev: 667

U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday. Stocks in the Energy (+2.05%), Media (+0.83%) and Household & Personal Products (+0.54%) sectors were mostly on the upside while Consumer Durables & Apparel (-1.77%), Automobiles & Components (-1.27%), and Real Estate (-1.05%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, existing home sales declined 4.9% MoM in March (vs -3.8% expected, +11.2% in February). Also, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.15 in March (vs -0.10 expected) from -0.31 in February. The S&P 500 (2,907.97) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,871.80 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,819.67 – positive slope).


European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.95 Our preference: short positions below 71.95 with targets at 71.35 & 71.05 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 71.95 look for further upside with 72.25 & 72.45 as targets. Comment: as long as 71.95 is resistance, expect a return to 71.35.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE MAR Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
08:15 FR APR P Markit Composite PMI exp: 49.7 prev: 48.9
08:15 FR APR P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50 prev: 49.7
08:15 FR APR P Markit Services PMI exp: 49.7 prev: 49.1
09:00 EU APR P Markit Composite PMI exp: 51.8 prev: 51.6
09:00 EU APR P Markit Manufacturing exp: 48 prev: 47.5
09:00 EU APR P Markit Services PMI exp: 53.1 prev: 53.3
09:30 UK MAR Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US APR Philadelphia Fed. exp: 11.4 prev: 13.7
13:30 US MAR Retail Sales exp: 0.9% prev: -0.2%
13:30 US MAR Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.6% prev: -0.4%
13:30 US W14 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 206 prev: 196
14:45 US APR P Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 54.6
14:45 US APR P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 52.7 prev: 52.4
14:45 US APR P Markit Services PMI exp: 55.1 prev: 55.3
15:00 US FEB Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.8%
15:00 US MAR Leading Indicators exp: 0.4% prev: 0.2% read more

U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, dragged by shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (-3.58%), Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (-2.37%) and Telecommunication Services (-1.33%) sectors. On the economic data front, trade deficit narrowed to $49.4B in February (forecasted $53.4B) from $51.1B in the prior month. In other news, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% MoM in February (expected +0.3%, +1.2% in January). The S&P 500 (2,900.45) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,863.93 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,812.16 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.60 Our preference: long positions above 71.60 with targets at 72.15 & 72.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 71.60 look for further downside with 71.40 & 71.05 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK MAR CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.5%
09:30 UK MAR PPI – Input (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.6%
09:30 UK MAR PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
10:00 EC FEB Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 1548
10:00 EC MAR Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.9% prev: 1%
13:30 US FEB Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.3 prev: -51.1
15:00 US FEB Wholesale Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 1.2%
15:30 US W14 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 7029 read more

U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.86%), Insurance (+1.75%) and Banks (+1.35%) sectors. On the economic data front, industrial production declined 0.1% MoM in March (estimated +0.2%, +0.1% in February) and capacity utilization fell to 78.8% (forecasted 79.2%) from 79.0%. Also, the NAHB housing market index rose to 63 in April from 62 a month earlier. The S&P 500 (2,907.06) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,860.12 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,808.90 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

Base oil markets around Europe, the Middle East and Africa appeared to stabilize the past few days, but a sentiment of underlying weakness persists. Group I prices showed signs of leveling off, but Group II sellers are aggressively protecting or seeking to expand their market shares while the Group III segment shows signs of tightening for the moment but looks like a buyers’ market long term. 

Recent run-ups in crude and feedstock costs have only created further problems for base oil producers, who have talked for some time of trimming output. Some are now considering heavy discounts to move stocks out of tank. The media has seized on renewed fighting in Libya as critical to future crude prices, but in reality the country’s current output is too small to make it a significant factor. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.30 Our preference: short positions below 71.30 with targets at 70.80 & 70.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 71.30 look for further upside with 71.60 & 71.85 as targets. Comment: a break below 70.80 would trigger a drop towards 70.60.