Author: Specialist

Base oil markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa diverged this week, depending on grade and type. API Group I grades are largely stable except for bright stock, which has come under downward pricing pressure because demand fell while availability stayed healthy.

Meanwhile, Group II and Group III markets are seeing aggressive selling from suppliers bent on gaining or protecting market share. Prices are weakening in response to the quantities of product circulating in the markets, and with no signs of any let up on this score, the scene is set for further price erosion. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 68.60 Our preference: long positions above 68.60 with targets at 69.65 & 70.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 68.60 look for further downside with 68.20 & 67.75 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

US MAR Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: NA prev: 16.6
10:00 EC FEB Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US FEB P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.3% prev: -0.2%
13:30 US FEB P Durable Goods Orders exp: -1% prev: 0.3%

U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, led by shares in the Banks (+2.94%), Automobiles & Components (+2.64%) and Transportation (+2.25%) sectors. On the economic data front, retail sales declined 0.2% MoM in February (estimated +0.2%, +0.7% in January). In other news, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.4 in March (forecasted and previously estimated 52.5), compared with 53.0 in the prior month. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in March (expected 54.5) from 54.2 in February. Finally, construction spending increased 1.0% MoM in February (estimated -0.2%, +2.5% in January). The S&P 500 (2,867.19) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,807.72 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,760.23 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

Today’s Economic Events

08:50 FR MAR F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50.1 prev: 49.8
09:00 EU MAR F Markit Manufacturing exp: 47.7 prev: 47.6
10:00 EC FEB Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.8% prev: 7.8%
13:30 US FEB Retail Sales exp: 0.3% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US FEB Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.4% prev: 0.9%
14:45 US MAR F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: NA prev: 52.5
15:00 US FEB Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 1.3%
15:00 US JAN Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.6%
15:00 US MAR ISM – Manufacturing exp: 54.5 prev: 54.2
15:00 US MAR ISM – Price Paid exp: NA prev: 49.4 read more

U.S. indices closed higher to finish the week on Friday, boosted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.38%), Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.33%) and Transportation (+1.3%) sectors. On the economic data front, personal income rose 0.2% MoM in February (estimated 0.3%, -0.1% in January) and personal spending increased by 0.1% in January (forecasted 0.3%, -0.6% in December). The MNI Chicago PMI fell to 58.7 in March (expected 61.0) from 64.7 in February. Also, new home sales grew 4.9% MoM in February to an annualized rate of 667K units (estimated 620K). Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index was confirmed at 98.4 in March (forecasted and previously estimated 97.8). The S&P 500 (2,834.40) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,805.50 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,755.61 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 67.55 Our preference: long positions above 67.55 with targets at 68.80 & 69.10 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 67.55 look for further downside with 67.25 & 66.95 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE FEB Import Prices (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -0.2%
07:00 GE FEB Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.8% prev: 2.9%
07:45 FR FEB Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -17.3
07:45 FR FEB Households Consumption (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 1.2%
07:45 FR MAR P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.9% prev: 0%
07:45 FR MAR P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 1% prev: 0.1%
08:55 GE MAR Unemployment Change (k) exp: -9.7 prev: -21
08:55 GE MAR Unemployment Rate exp: 4.9% prev: 5%
09:30 UK 4Q Current Account (B GBP) exp: -23.3 prev: -26.5
09:30 UK 4Q F GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
09:30 UK FEB M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.2%
12:30 US FEB Personal Income exp: 0.3% prev: -0.1%
12:30 US JAN Personal Spending exp: 0.2% prev: -0.5%
13:45 US MAR Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 61.2 prev: 64.7
14:00 US FEB New Home Sales (k) exp: 622 prev: 607
14:00 US MAR F U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 97.6 prev: 97.8 read more

U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, led by shares in the Automobiles & Components (+1.41%), Transportation (+1.22%) and Banks (+1.16%) sectors. On the economic data front, final readings of 4Q annualized GDP rose 2.2% QoQ (expected +2.3%, previously estimated +2.6%, +3.4% in 3Q). In other news, initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 211K in week ended March 23 (expected 220K) from 216K in the previous week while continuing claims increased to 1.756M in week ended March 16 (estimated 1.778M) from 1.743M a week earlier. Pending home sales declined by 1.0% MoM in February (forecasted -0.5%, +4.3% in January). The S&P 500 (2,815.37) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,802.46 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,751.24 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 68.05 Our preference: short positions below 68.05 with targets at 67.20 & 66.90 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 68.05 look for further upside with 68.35 & 68.70 as targets. Comment: a break below 67.20 would trigger a drop towards 66.90.