European, Middle Eastern and African base oil prices have been sliding lower for varying reasons during the past week, depending on where and which type and grade of base stock is being considered.

Normally at this time of year a traditional upswing in demand has always taken place due to blenders restocking ahead of the busy summer driving season, and also in anticipation of industrial output gaining momentum over the next three of four months. This event has simply not happened this year, nor are there any real or definitive signs out there to suggest that an upturn is about to take place. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 65.05 Our preference: long positions above 65.05 with targets at 65.95 & 66.35 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 65.05 look for further downside with 64.60 & 63.90 as targets. Comment: a support base at 65.05 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Today’s Economic Events

08:50 FR FEB F Markit Composite PMI exp: 49.9 prev: 49.9
08:50 FR FEB F Markit Services PMI exp: 49.9 prev: 49.8
09:00 EU FEB F Markit Composite PMI exp: 51.2 prev: 51.4
09:00 EU FEB F Markit Services PMI exp: 52.2 prev: 52.3
10:00 EC JAN Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: 1.1% prev: -1.6%
14:45 US FEB F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 55.8
14:45 US FEB F Markit Services PMI exp: NA prev: 56.2
15:00 US DEC New Home Sales (k) exp: 590 prev: 657
15:00 US FEB ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 57.3 prev: 56.7
19:00 US JAN Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: NA prev: -14 read more

U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, pressured by shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (-2.12%), Telecommunication Services (-2.09%) and Consumer Services (-1.03%) sectors. On the economic data front, construction spending dropped 0.6% MoM in December (vs +0.1% estimated, +0.8% in November). The S&P 500 (2,792.81) stays above its 20d moving average (2,761.62 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,647.71 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 65.90 Our preference: short positions below 65.90 with targets at 64.60 & 63.90 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 65.90 look for further upside with 66.50 & 67.10 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 65.90 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 64.60 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC JAN Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.8%
15:00 US DEC Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.8%

U.S. indices closed higher to finish the week on Friday. Shares in the Energy (+1.81%), Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.5%) and Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+1.35%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, personal income declined by 0.1% MoM in January (estimated +0.3%, +1.0% in December), while personal spending decreased by 0.5% in December (forecasted -0.3%, +0.6% in November). In other news, final readings of February Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI posted 53.0 (expected 53.7). Also, the ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 54.2 in February (estimated 55.8) from 56.6 in January. Finally, final readings of University of Michigan sentiment index posted 93.8 in February (forecasted 95.9). The S&P 500 (2,803.69) stays above its 20d moving average (2,757.31 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,642.77 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.25 Our preference: long positions above 66.25 with targets at 67.50 & 67.85 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.25 look for further downside with 65.90 & 65.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum

Today’s Economic Events

US FEB Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 16.8 prev: 16.6
07:00 GE JAN Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 1.9% prev: -3.1%
07:45 FR JAN Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -76.1
08:50 FR FEB F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 51.4 prev: 51.4
08:55 GE FEB Unemployment Change (k) exp: -5.5 prev: -2
08:55 GE FEB Unemployment Rate exp: 5% prev: 5%
09:00 EU FEB F Markit Manufacturing exp: 49.4 prev: 49.2
09:30 UK JAN M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.4%
10:00 EC JAN Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.9% prev: 7.9%
13:30 US DEC Personal Spending exp: -0.2% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US JAN Personal Income exp: 0.3% prev: 0.2%
14:45 US FEB F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 54.2 prev: 53.7
15:00 US FEB F U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 95.8 prev: 95.5
15:00 US FEB ISM – Manufacturing exp: 55.5 prev: 56.6
15:00 US FEB ISM – Price Paid exp: 52.4 prev: 49.6 read more

U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, dragged by shares in the Materials (-1.27%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.1%) and Energy (-0.97%) sectors. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims slightly increased to 225K in week ended February 23 (estimated 220K) from 217K a week earlier and continuing claims rose to 1.805M in week ended February 16 (expected 1.737M) from 1.726M in the prior week. In other news, annualized GDP grew 2.6% QoQ in 4Q (expected +2.2%, +3.4% in 3Q) Finally, the Chicago PMI jumped to 64.7 in February (estimated 57.5) from 56.7 in January. The S&P 500 (2,784.49) stays above its 20d moving average (2,752.33 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,637.62 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more