General Market Comment 03.04.19

US indices closed higher on Wednesday, led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.03%), Automobiles & Components (+1.64%) and Materials (+1.33%) sectors. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications jumped by 18.6% in week ended March 29th from a rise of 8.9% in the previous week. The ADP employment change reached 129k in March (estimated 175k) compared to 197k in February. In other news, Markit US services PMI reached 55.3 in March (forecasted 54.8) vs. 56 a month earlier while Markit US composite PMI decreased to 54.6 in March from 55.5 in February. Finally, the ISM non-manufacturing index decreased to 56.1 in March (expected 58) vs. 59.7 in the prior month. The S&P 500 (2,873.40) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,816.65 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,768.97 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs on Wednesday with the exception of the CAD and the JPY. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications jumped by 18.6% in week ended March 29th from a rise of 8.9% in the previous week. The ADP employment change reached 129k in March (estimated 175k) compared to 197k in February. In other news, Markit US services PMI reached 55.3 in March (forecasted 54.8) vs. 56 a month earlier while Markit US composite PMI decreased to 54.6 in March from 55.5 in February. Finally, the ISM non-manufacturing index decreased to 56.1 in March (expected 58) vs. 59.7 in the prior month. 

The Euro was bullish against all of its major pairs with the exception of the AUD. The euro zone PMI services index was 53.3 in final estimation in March (52.7 expected) vs 52.8 in February. Separately, euro-zone retail sales were up by 0.4% in February (+0.3% anticipated) after a 0.9% increase a month earlier. UK PMI services index fell to 48.9 in March (50.9 expected) from 51.3 in February. 

The Australian dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAY 19) was about flat to $62.48. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $59.31) and above its 50D MA (@ $56.96). The 14d RSI above 70 (71.2) indicates WTI Crude Future (MAY 19) was overbought. The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 29 March, crude oil inventories increased 7238k barrels compared to the previous week.

Gold was down $2.2 to $1290.3. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1302) and below its 50D MA (@ $1308).

Copper Future (MAY 19) on Comex was up 3.8c to 294.3c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 290.11c) and above its 50D MA (@ 286.11c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories increased 525 tons to 167950 tons.